Amid artificial intelligence (AI) and generative AI (GenAI) driving rapid increases in electricity consumption, and with data centre forecasts over the next two years reaching as high as 160% growth, how badly will AI data centres be impacted by power shortages?

According to Gartner, the global technological research and consulting firm, it’s predicted that a whopping 40% of existing AI data centres will be operationally constrained by power availability by 2027.

“The explosive growth of new hyperscale data centers to implement GenAI is creating an insatiable demand for power that will exceed the ability of utility providers to expand their capacity fast enough,” explained Bob Johnson, who serves as a VP analyst at the firm.

“In turn, this threatens to disrupt energy availability and lead to shortages, which will limit the growth of new data centers for GenAI and other uses from 2026.”

Demand For Power?
Gartner has now estimated that the power required for data centres to run incremental AI-optimised servers will reach 500 terawatt-hours (TWh) per year in 2027, which is 2.6 times the level in 2023.

“New larger data centers are being planned to handle the huge amounts of data needed to train and implement the rapidly expanding large language models (LLMs) that underpin GenAI applications,” Johnson noted.

“However, short-term power shortages are likely to continue for years as new power transmission, distribution and generation capacity could take years to come online and won’t alleviate current problems.”

In the near future, the number of new data centres and the growth of GenAI will be governed by the availability of power to run them, the firm outlined, recommending that organisations determine the risks potential power shortages will have on all products and services.

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Electricity Price Increases?
The inevitable result of impending power shortages is an increase in the price of power, which will also increase the costs of operating LLMs, according to Gartner.

“Significant power users are working with major producers to secure long-term guaranteed sources of power independent of other grid demands,” mentioned Johnson.

“In the meantime, the cost of power to operate data centers will increase significantly as operators use economic leverage to secure needed power. These costs will be passed on to AI/GenAI product and service providers as well.”

Gartner also recommends that organisations evaluate future plans anticipating higher power costs and negotiate long-term contracts for data centre services at reasonable rates for power.

Organisations should also factor significant cost increases when developing plans for new products and services, while also looking for alternative approaches that require less power, the research firm said.

Sustainability Goals to Suffer?
Gartner also outlined that zero-carbon sustainability goals will also be negatively affected by short-term solutions to provide more power, as surging demand is forcing suppliers to increase production by any means possible.

Data centres require 24/7 power availability, which renewable power such as wind or solar cannot provide without some form of alternative supply during periods when not generating power, according to Gartner.

In the long-term, new technologies for improved battery storage (e.g. sodium ion batteries) or clean power (e.g. small nuclear reactors) will become available and help achieve sustainability goals.