American dominance in AI is fast eroding, according to new research predicting that the best minds in the field will soon decide to take their skills elsewhere.

After an in-depth analysis of the world’s top 800,000 AI experts, UK-based data intelligence firm Zeki Data has warned that the US could lose its global edge in artificial intelligence as early as this year, driven by cuts to federal science funding, reduced hiring by major tech firms, and a shift towards domestically-focused ‘sovereign AI’ initiatives.

Zeki’s report, the State of AI Talent 2025, found that the top fifteen US AI companies have, over time, hired around half a million software engineers, growing at an average rate of 24% up to 2014, with monthly hires topping more than 3,000 back in 2020.

However, with new agentic AI tools being rapidly adopted across enterprises, Zeki’s data predicts that the era of these large teams in software development is over, with the number of monthly hires crashing into layoffs after 2023, and only picking up slightly this year.

The most recent numbers from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show that American tech companies are still reducing their headcounts, losing a net 7,000 positions last month.

On top of that, US Government budget cuts will impact essential research funding, with Zeki data indicating that over 115,000 of those working in AI exploration have benefited from National Science Foundation (NSF) or National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding, allowing them to develop their expertise and make breakthroughs.

With last week bringing news that President Donald Trump’s budget for next year could herald a 56% funding reduction for the NSF, as well as a roughly 40% cut for the NIH, Zeki’s data is evidence that those working at the top of AI research in other countries will soon be disincentivised to look for positions in American labs or universities. 

The figures show just how reliant the US has become on overseas AI talent to maintain its advantage and meet what Zeki calls the ‘systemic lack of supply’ in American tech talent. 

Of the 322,000 top AI professionals currently working in the US, Zeki identified 40% originally coming from other countries, as have 39% of those who have founded AI firms operating in America.

With top tech firms reducing headcounts and conducting layoffs, and no sign that the Trump administration will shore up any shortfall in funding for tech development, those working in AI are already beginning to look elsewhere.

Tech talent could soon be staying home

In particular, Zeki’s data shows that India will soon become a consumer, rather than a provider of top AI talent.

In 2015, the country established six new Institutes of Technology, rapidly expanding India’s capacity to train tech talent at a scale that was crucial to the growth of the world’s top AI firms in the years since.

According to the report, Indian-trained professionals are highly valued by US companies seeking to address capacity gaps in their AI workforce, and as a result, 44% of the country’s top AI talent now lives overseas, with more than 10,000 moving to the US in the last five years alone.

But recently, this dynamic has been shifting. Zeki’s study found that newly trained Indian AI specialists are opting to pursue their careers or continue studying at home, supported by the Indian government’s AI Mission, which aims to bolster the country’s homegrown AI and deep-tech startups.

Meanwhile, governments across Europe and the Gulf are expected to redouble their efforts to retain their own supply of tech talent.

Zeki’s figures show that at the moment, almost 20% of the UK’s top AI minds currently reside in the US, just shy of 5,000 individuals, with those from other countries, from Italy, Germany, France, Spain, to the UAE, and Singapore, adding up to thousands of AI specialists currently choosing to work in America.

Many of these nations, however, are looking to pull their homegrown talent back.

Zeki points out that in February 2024, the Singaporean government unveiled a five-year, $1 billion plan to support AI computation, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia have made significant AI investments, with  Abu Dhabi’s MGX Fund targeting $100 billion in AI assets.

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Likewise, the UK Government is looking to invest in AI skills, with plans to recruit specialists through a refreshed visa process, and a report from the Financial Times that officials are set to launch a £50 million scheme designed to attract the world’s top research talent to UK science.

“Countries will best succeed if they take a targeted long-term approach and don’t seek to catch the existing AI innovation wave but look to the next,” claims Zeki’s report.

“Instead of competing here, it would be more beneficial to concentrate on developing new emerging skills that are likely to drive the next wave of AI innovation. 

“This includes exploring the intersection of quantum computing and AI, as well as advancements in computer vision, imaging, robotics and sensing. In these more emerging areas, the UK and other major European economies are likely to have the potential to close the innovation gap more quickly.”