By 2029, only 5% of automakers will maintain strong AI investment growth, a decline from over 95% today, predicts Gartner, Inc.

“The automotive sector is currently experiencing a period of AI euphoria, where many companies want to achieve disruptive value even before building strong AI foundations,” said Pedro Pacheco, VP Analyst at Gartner.

“This euphoria will eventually turn into disappointment as these organizations are not able to achieve the ambitious goals they set for AI.”

Gartner predicts that only a handful of automotive companies will maintain ambitious AI initiatives after the next five years. Organisations with strong software foundations, tech-savvy leadership, and a consistent very long-term focus on AI will pull ahead from the rest, creating a competitive AI divide.

“Software and data are the cornerstones of AI,” said Pacheco.

“Companies with advanced maturity in these areas have a natural head start. In addition, automotive companies led by execs with strong tech know-how are more likely to make AI their top priority instead of sticking to the traditional priorities of an automotive company.”

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Fully-automated Vehicle Assembly Predicted by 2030

The automotive industry is also heading for radical operational efficiency. As automakers rapidly integrate advanced robotics into their assembly lines, Gartner predicts that by 2030, at least one automaker will achieve fully automated vehicle assembly, marking a historic shift in the automotive sector.

“The race toward full automation is accelerating, with nearly half of the world’s top automakers (12 out of 25) already piloting advanced robotics in their factories,” said Marco Sandrone, VP Analyst at Gartner. “Automated vehicle assembly helps automakers reduce labor costs, improve quality, and shorten production cycle times. For consumers, this means better vehicles at potentially lower prices.”

While it may reduce the direct need for human labor in vehicle assembly, new roles in AI oversight, robotics maintenance and software development could offset losses if reskilling programs are prioritised.