Open banking could unlock significant economic benefits for the UK as adoption expands, according to new analysis from Open Banking Limited (OBL), potentially reaching up to £43 billion a year. 

Using publicly available data to build an economy-wide model of open banking’s value shows that the tech has already delivered an estimated £8.3 billion for 17 million users to date, but those figures could soon be surpassed.

Focusing on the tangible value open banking might deliver to consumers, SMEs, and the wider economy, the study predicts that the technology’s annual economic benefits will reach £7.4 billion over the next five years.

For SMEs, open banking will reduce the cost of administration, allowing business owners more time to focus on growth rather than paperwork, as well as the development of innovative products and services, which OBL argues could generate a GDP uplift of £2.3 billion a year by 2031.

Likewise, the study argues that the wider adoption of open banking-powered tools will help consumers manage their money more effectively, and improve access to fairer finance, supporting increased economic activity, delivering another annual £2.5 billion boost, according to the report. 

At full maturity and adoption, OBL projects that the long-term opportunity of open banking across the economy could be as high as £43 billion a year.

While those figures are eye‑catching, digging deeper shows that, when spread across the UK, these benefits may not be as substantial. The report’s projected £668 million in subscription savings, for example, works out to just £16.63 per consumer each year.

Likewise, the £1.8 billion opportunity from easier bank‑account switching amounts to only £32.79 per person, not a saving to be sneezed at, but hardly transformative.

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The study’s projections also rely on assumptions of far higher adoption than we’re seeing today, a level of growth which OBL hopes can be facilitated by the impending regulations giving the FCA powers to set open banking rules, laying the foundations for a “stable long-term regulatory framework”. 

“Open banking has already played a vital role in society with over 17.5 million user connections, and these findings show that there is an even greater opportunity ahead now that open banking has reached a key point of maturity,” said Henk Van Hulle, CEO of Open Banking Limited.

“By helping consumers manage their money better and enabling businesses to operate more efficiently, open banking is already contributing meaningfully to economic growth, a key component of the Government’s wider growth mission.”