New research has found that worldwide shipments of desktop, notebook, and workstation computers are expected to decline by a staggering 12%, down to 245 million units, in 2026.

This latest outlook conducted by Omdia, the technology research and advisory group, is grounded in sharp increases in memory and storage prices.

Price surges are being driven due to manufacturers redirecting efforts to memory modules, which support AI infrastructure, rather than the specific types of memory modules used within consumer electronics.

This has resulted in tightened supply of consumer memory, consequently inflating memory module prices and having a broader knock-on effect — not least directly on end-product computer shipments and sales.

Since last year, the costs of mainstream memory and storage configurations have risen by between $90 and $165 (£67~ and £123~), placing substantial financial pressure on PC vendors. As a result, they’ve been forced to raise product prices, reduce promotions, and adjust configurations.

Considering how quickly the situation is evolving, the tech research group conducted a multi-scenario analysis of the potential impact. Based on the latest available information and market signals, the forecast carried a higher downside risk, namely a widening of shortages for both memory and shortage and increasingly steep price hikes.

This could further suppress consumer demand and tighten PC vendors’ supply, pushing PC shipments toward a 15% decline — or potentially worse.

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Speaking on how the situation could impact different PC platforms, Kieren Jessop, research manager at Omdia, said: “Windows PCs, which account for 83% of shipments, are forecast to decline 12% in 2026 as the platform bears the brunt of memory and storage constraints.

“Chrome devices face the steepest decline at 28%, as the education-heavy platform is particularly exposed to tighter component allocation, lower margins and the discontinuation of some memory and storage products.

“Macs are set for a comparatively modest 5% decline, supported by Apple’s vertically integrated supply chain and premium positioning.”

Meanwhile, “HarmonyOS-based PCs are emerging as a notable growth segment, forecast to expand tenfold year on year from a small base as Huawei ramps up its PC ecosystem in China.”

Omdia also found that the impact across PC product categories is expected to be broadly consistent. Desktops are set to decline by 10% to 53.5 million units in 2026, while laptops are forecast to decline by 12%, down to 192.2 million units.