Technology and telecoms companies are turning their attention from AI adoption to returns, as pressure grows to demonstrate the economic value of investment, according to new KPMG research.

The KPMG 2026 Global Technology, Media and Telecoms CEO Outlook finds a striking divide between the speed of expected returns in technology and the value already being reported in telecoms.

Twenty-eight percent of technology CEOs surveyed expect a return on AI investment within six months, far above the three percent average across all sectors.

Yet, only 56 percent of technology CEOs report significant or transformational measurable value from AI, compared with 70 percent of telecoms CEOs.

The findings suggest the AI race is shifting from adoption to economics. Technology companies are setting aggressive payback expectations, while telecoms CEOs are more likely to report that AI is already producing substantial value.

The difference may reflect where the two sectors are in their AI journeys: telecoms are applying AI across established networks, data and customer relationships, while technology companies face a more complex value equation as investment rises and agentic AI reshapes traditional software economics.

“We’re entering the AI economics phase now. Over the next few years, I think we’re going to see a real separation between companies that turn AI investment into revenue, margin and enterprise value and those that struggle to make the economics work,” Chad Seiler, Americas Head of TMT, KPMG US, said.

“At the same time, the amount of capital going into compute, data centers, networks and power is extraordinary.

“How efficiently we power that infrastructure, who bears the cost and whether it ultimately creates enough economic value to justify the investment are becoming much bigger questions. I think those questions are going to shape the technology and telecoms industries as much as the technology itself.”

Agentic AI raises the stakes for investment returns

The investment cycle is continuing to accelerate. AI is a top investment priority for 88 percent of technology CEOs surveyed and 82 percent of telecoms CEOs.

Technology companies also report greater confidence in the pace of adoption, with 74 percent saying they are moving at the right pace or are ahead of the curve, compared with 61 percent in telecoms.

Agentic AI could further reshape the economics of both sectors. Eighty percent of technology CEOs and 76 percent of telecoms CEOs expect it to have a significant or transformational impact, compared with 57 percent across all sectors.

As agents increasingly sit between users and software, they could change how services are accessed and consumed, shifting value from traditional applications towards the models, platforms, data, and infrastructure that enable them.

CEOs remain confident despite a more uncertain global outlook

 CEOs in both sectors remain confident in their own organisations. Eighty-four percent of technology CEOs and 82 percent of telecoms CEOs are confident in their companies’ growth prospects.

Confidence in global economic growth is lower, at 72 percent among technology CEOs and 57 percent among telecoms CEOs.

Technology CEOs report particularly strong earnings expectations. Thirty-six percent expect earnings growth above five percent, and within that, 13 percent anticipate double-digit growth, the highest of the sectors surveyed.

In telecoms, 22 percent expect earnings growth above five percent, as operators seek to translate connectivity, data and trusted customer relationships into higher-value services.

Anna Scally, Global Head of TMT, KPMG International, said: “Technology and telecoms CEOs remain confident that their organisations can outperform the uncertainty around them. But delivering on that confidence will require more than continued investment.

“It will depend on their ability to turn technology investment into sustainable value, while strengthening the critical infrastructure and skills needed to support future growth.”

Infrastructure, cyber resilience and talent shape the next growth phase

The infrastructure and power demands of scaling AI are bringing sustainability further into strategic decision-making. Concern about AI’s environmental impact is high among 94 percent of technology CEOs and 96 percent of telecoms CEOs.

In technology, 70 percent of CEOs say sustainability is fully embedded in their business, up from 59 percent in 2025, while 63 percent are integrating sustainability more deeply into core strategy, up from 49 percent.

The findings highlight a growing tension: AI can help optimise operations and energy use, but scaling it requires more compute, infrastructure and power.

As reliance on that infrastructure grows, so too does the importance of cyber resilience. Fifty-one percent of technology CEOs and 59 percent of telecoms CEOs report increasing investment in cyber and digital-risk mitigation.

However, regulatory readiness remains uneven, with 42 percent of technology CEOs and 34 percent of telecoms CEOs reporting they are only moderately prepared for evolving regulation across AI, cyber, privacy and platform safety, bringing the cost and availability of those resources increasingly into the AI economics equation.

Recommended reading

• AI Doesn’t Need Traditional ROI Anymore, Finds KPMG
• Is Chasing AI Hype Holding Businesses Back from AI Value?
• UK Firms Move From AI Hype to Measurable ROI
• Is Data Infrastructure Getting Side Lined in the Push for AI in Health?
• Only 2% of Firms Ready for Agentic AI Risks, New Report Warns

Furthermore, leaders are also having to rethink the workforce needed to support AI-led growth.

Eighty-four percent of technology CEOs and 88 percent of telecoms CEOs say they are redesigning roles, career paths and team structures around human-AI collaboration.

At the same time, 92 percent of CEOs in both sectors still expect overall workforce growth over the next three years, suggesting the immediate challenge is not simply workforce size, but how organisations reshape roles and skills as people increasingly work alongside AI.

“The next phase will look different across technology and telecoms. In technology, agentic AI could challenge traditional software economics and reshape where value is captured,” Scally added.

“For telecoms, rising demand for connectivity, compute and trusted data creates an opportunity to move beyond traditional connectivity and capture more of the value created by the AI economy.

“Across both sectors, the winners will likely be those that can convert AI and infrastructure investment into sustainable growth, stronger economics and higher enterprise value.”