Despite a huge increase in cyberattacks, Britain has been extremely fortunate to avoid any catastrophic infrastructure damage, but it will happen, according to Ciaran Martin, head of the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC)

Recently Martin told the Guardian, “I think it is a matter of when, not if and we will be fortunate to come to the end of the decade without having to trigger a category one attack.”

A level C1 cyberattack, is defined as a strike that could cripple infrastructure, such as energy supplies and the financial services sector, and threaten life. In the instance of a C1 cybersecurity incident, the national government would be required to respond.

Threats from abroad

This prediction comes after UK defence chief of general staff, Sir Nick Carter, warned that the UK was inadequately prepared to handle a Russian cyberattack, calling on the government to boost defence spending to tackle this issue.

Carter said, “Our ability to pre-empt or respond to threats will be eroded if we don’t keep up with our adversaries.” He believes that in future Russia, by combining its military and cyberwarfare might, will be a formidable threat to the UK.

Attacks on critical infrastructures to increase

The Kosciuszko Institute has recently published a forecast report on cybersecurity in 2018, which backs Martin’s viewpoint. The report believes this could be the year that cybercriminals will focus their attacks on critical infrastructure with Russia and North Korea becoming even more active. Commander Wiesław Goździewicz asserts that cybercriminals will be a step ahead of security specialists.

Ambassador Marina Kaljurand, Chair of the Global Commission on the Stability of Cyberspace and former Minister of Foreign Affairs in Estonia, predicts that increased cyberattacks will challenge the fundamental values that underlie the Internet – openness and freedom.

Cyber Resilience

To date, the NCSC has recorded 34 category 2 (C2) and 752 category 3 (C3) attacks. The most disruptive C2 attack was the notorious Wannacry cyber attack in 2017, which disrupted 47 NHS trusts by infecting 236 machines across the UK.

North Korea, Russia, China and Iran are some of the key countries identified as origin points for several of the past cyberattacks on the UK. Many of these attacks were espionage-based and involved scouting out vulnerabilities in UK infrastructure for potential future disruption.

Scotland is already taking steps to protect its public sector from cyber threats. By the end of June 2018, The Scottish Government will implement the new public sector cyber resilience strategy under the NCSC’s Active Cyber Defence Programme.  By committing to and implementing a common approach the Scottish government hopes to protect its public bodies and those who use them from cyber risks.