Losses from global roaming fraud are anticipated to exceed $8 billion (£6.34bn) by 2028, driven by the increase in bilateral roaming agreements for data-intensive use cases over 5G networks.

This is according to a new study from Juniper Research, which in turn predicts that fraudulent data traffic will account for 80% of global operator roaming-based losses by 2024.

Bilateral roaming agreements refers to the contractual agreement between two or more mobile data companies to offer the same or ‘lateral’ services to an international roaming customer for the same price as their domestic mobile package. These agreements are meant to lower the costs for customers travelling internationally as an alternative to traditional data roaming.

As 2G and 3G networks are sunsetting, operators are accelerating the transition to 5G and VoLTE (voice-over LTE) roaming services to leverage the high levels of virtualisation and lower operational costs.

However, the highly virtualised nature of 5G networks is creating more opportunities for fraudsters to deploy their attacks, leaving operator networks open to emerging fraud tactics over 5G networks.

As bilateral 5G roaming agreements proliferate, the research predicts operators will deploy more sophisticated fraud mitigation tools. The greater amount of data that 5G roaming connections generate will require the development of solutions that can detect fraudulent users and traffic over new 5G networks as they evolve.

An example is the rise in 5G subscription fraud, whereby fraudsters create new subscriptions with false information, incurring roam charges without intending to pay. Until the subscription is cancelled, fraudsters will continue anonymously using 5G roaming data, with operators losing potential roaming revenue.

Juniper Research also explained six roaming fraud threats to keep watch of for users and operators.

1. Sim Card Cloning

Fraudsters can access a legitimate subscriber’s SIM card and use it to make calls or use data services, all while the legitimate subscriber is roaming abroad, resulting in greater charges for the subscriber and reduced operator revenue.

2. Identity Theft

Fraudsters can access a subscriber’s personal information in order to act as the subscriber. Then, scammers are using roaming services at a cost of the target subscriber and operator, and potentially damaging the subscriber’s credit history by amassing unpaid bills in their name.

3. Sim Box Fraud

In this scam, fraudsters use multiple SIM cards in a SIM box to redirect international calls through local numbers, allowing them to evade high international charges and thus impacting operator revenue.

Here, fraudsters manipulate call records so that international calls are recognised as local calls, also known as ‘landing fraud.’ This is a popular fraud tactic in countries where the cost of terminating international calls is high, according to the study.

5. Subscription Fraud

In this, fraudsters use a stolen identity to subscribe to multiple roaming services, leaving operators unable to identify the source and recover their costs, impacting revenue and damaging relations with the identity’s real owner.

6. International Revenue Share Fraud

Fraudsters manipulate call patterns and exploit revenue-sharing models by targeting International Premium Rate Numbers (IPRN) in high-cost locations. These numbers are usually more expensive, but can function internationally without extra fees. By exploiting these, fraudsters can taken advantage of operators’ revenue sharing agreements, impact traffic, and affect operator revenue.

“Operators must implement 5G-specific signalling detection and firewalls that offer real-time monitoring and ID-registry analysis,” research author Rosie O’Connor said. “Only then, can operators more efficiently identify subscription fraud across 100 million 5G roaming connections predicted globally in 2024.”

Fraud mitigation services will alert operators of any potentially fraudulent activity across 5G networks in real-time and enable them to identify and block suspicious roaming subscribers. This will enable operators to minimise fraudulent activity and therefore reduce the impact on their roaming revenue.