Tokariuk, a Ukrainian journalist, disinformation researcher, and fellow at the Chatham House contemplated some of the key lessons learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In particular, how artificial intelligence (AI) and data are changing the landscape of modern warfare in real time. 

“Either you will start using artificial intelligence, or it will replace you. Artificial intelligence is an irreversible trend.” This quote was said by Mykhailo Fedorov, the minister of digital transformation in Ukraine, and Tokariuk repeated it to ground the ongoing invasion in the wider backdrop of the proliferation of this transformative technology. 

Foremost, Tokariuk points to how AI is being utilised by both Russian and Ukrainian forces in the battlefield. According to her, it helps analyse the vast amount of data coming from various sources, along with intelligence information in order to create a multi-layered picture of the situation on the ground. This can then be relayed back to decision makers to help them make strategic decisions driven by data.

Wars are still primarily fought in the trenches, and the human sacrifice involved in defending Ukraine from complete invasion cannot be undermined. However, Ukraine is also being heralded as the first modern conflict fought purposefully, and strategically online as well as on the ground, with proliferations in cyber espionage and attacks, advancement in data intelligence, and AI marking this devasting conflict as the beginning of a new era in modern warfare.

AI and Data in the Social Sphere

Since the invasion began, AI has been utilised to automate and facilitate the spread of disinformation by Russia. Between deepfakes and systemic disinformation campaigns, Ukraine has had to fight the swaths of falsehoods circulating from Russian networks, especially in Ukraine, in an attempt to demoralise them. 

“(Ukrainians) have been using AI in their work to visualise these networks and to raise the awareness inside the Ukrainian public about the impact, range, and scope of these operations that Russia has launched against Ukraine, trying to misinform people,” she said. 

One project, run by Mythos Labs that Tokariuk was involved in, is using AI to monitor large amounts of data from Twitter to investigate and identify Russian disinformation campaigns in Ukraine. 

“The main finding of this report was actually that by looking into the activity of these disinformation actors on social media such as Twitter, you can predict an increase in military activity,” remarked Tokariuk.

According to her research report, she and the team at Mythos noticed a spike in activity in Russian language actors on social media when Russia first started to mobilise its troops on the Ukrainian border in spring of 2021. There was another similar spike just before the full-scale military invasion in February of 2022.

“AI can help predict the situation,” she said. According to Tokariuk, some researchers are using data like this to detect Russian attacks before they even happen. 

Finally, Tokariuk pointed out that technology is used in the cyber realm as well. According to her, since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, the country has experienced at least 470 cyber-attacks. 

“Interestingly enough, very few of them were successful. Their impact was fairly limited. Ukraine really prepared itself, and it was equipped with very strong cyber defence systems provided by its partners,” she pointed out. 

She said that with the help of government agencies, and tech companies, Ukraine moved its data and information to cloud servers outside of Ukraine to further protect itself against Russian cyber attacks.

“There is a strong community, and strong activist groups and since (Russia) started the invasion, they orchestrated several attacks on Russia,” she said. 

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AI on the Traditional Battlefield. 

Another angle of the use of AI and data in the Russian invasion of Ukraine is its use in the battlefield itself. 

Automated drones have been deployed widely throughout this conflict. “Not just to do reconnaissance,” said Tokariuk, “but also to identify targets and help the operators destroy enemy targets efficiently.”

According to her, information processing and AI is widely used in situational awareness systems, which is an autonomous drone’s ability to understand its position in relations to other objects or aircraft . By using these drones to analyse the data coming from the situation on the ground, Ukrainians are able to make intelligent, data-driven decisions. 

As Tokariuk points out, making drones is actually quite accessible. “For up to $400, a drone can be assembled from spare parts ordered from mostly abroad,” she said. 

“As some Ukrainian drone manufacturers told Politico recently, we made our drones using microchips imported from China, and details we bought on AliExpress,” she said. 

Tokariuk said that the political risks involved with buying parts from China, mixed with China allegedly limiting Ukrainian’s access to drone parts, has created a burgeoning internal industry. 

“Currently, about 200 Ukrainian companies are engaged in drone manufacturing, which is a big difference compared to the start of the full scale invasion, when most of the drones that Ukraine used were foreign imported, or from abroad provided by other countries.” 

“AI is a double edged sword,” said Tokariuk, closing up her keynote speech, “it’s just a matter of how we use it.”