New research from the University of Edinburgh has found that the high cost of installing heat pumps for home heating could slow down people from widely adopting the technology, leaving government targets missed.

The study has shown that there’s been little to no reduction in the average installation cost of the green heating systems over the past decade in the UK.

Although projections suggest a reduction of 20 to 25 percent in installation costs by 2030, this falls significantly short of the targets set by UK policymakers, researchers say.

Domestic heat pumps currently play a marginal role in heating UK homes. Though the number of installations is growing, it remains low compared with traditional, fossil fuel-based heating systems.

Low Carbon Technologies, High Costs
Researchers say the findings highlight the need for policy aspirations to be based on realistic assessments of likely cost reductions, and to develop incentives that can address the relatively high upfront costs of some low carbon technologies.

As well as decarbonising home heating, advocates for heat pumps say they offer energy security and efficiency benefits, and can offer lower and more stable energy bills.

Researchers at the University of Edinburgh, as well as Imperial College London, used systematic evidence review techniques to analyse and forecast data for the installation costs of domestic heat pumps.

They included the different factors that can affect heat pump cost data such as the type of home, technology design, and the wider heating system.

They also assessed equipment and non-equipment costs, and the factors affecting them such as international manufacturing supply chains and local labour markets.

They found there has been no significant reduction in the average installed cost of heat pumps over the past decade in the UK, while modest cost reductions were seen internationally.

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Could Heat Pump Costs Fall in the Future?
However, there are prospects for reduced installed costs in the UK, the researchers said.

UK forecasts suggest a reduction in total installed costs by 2030 of around 20 to 25 percent, with the anticipated savings higher for non-equipment costs – through more efficient installations, for example – than for equipment costs.

That said, while there are prospects for reductions in installation costs, these reductions are unlikely to be on a scale and pace to match UK policy targets, the researchers noted.

Dr Mark Winskel, at the University of Edinburgh’s School of Social and Political Science, commented: “While there is a growing policy consensus that heat pumps will play a key role in decarbonising home heating, there are some stubborn economic challenges.

“Our research suggests the need for realistic expectations about heat pump installed cost reductions, and also, introducing targeted support measures to reflect their competitive running costs and wider benefits.”

The study has been published in the academic journal, Applied Energy. The research was undertaken as part of the UK Energy Research Centre research programme, funded by the UK Research and Innovation’s Energy and Decarbonisation theme.