Generative AI (genAI) for procurement is at the ‘Peak of Inflated Expectations on the Gartner Hype Cycle’, an analytical graph used to measure the trajectory of emerging technologies, mapping their potential success, or demise.

Rapid adoption and a multitude of credible use cases will quickly move genAI to the ‘Plateau of Productivity’ within two years, the analysis firm says.

Gartner’s Hype Cycle (as seen in the figure) can track multiple emerging technologies as they pertain to their adoption and deployment across the globe or in specific industries.

The Hype Cycle begins with an innovation trigger, which jump starts an emerging technology on its hype journey. With rapid adoption and continual advancements, generative AI skyrocketed to the peak of inflated expectations in terms of procurement solutions.

The cycle typically requires technological advancements to take a downward spiral towards the trough of disillusionment – which Gartner describes as a point where ‘interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.’

However, Gartner predicts that GenAI will then swiftly climb the slope of enlightenment – which it describes as the point where ‘mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology’s broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off.’ With this in mind, Gartner predicts that genAI will reach the plateau of productivity within two years.

“GenAI can already enhance many different workflows in procurement and 73% of procurement leaders at the start of the year expected to adopt the technology by the end 2024,” said Kaitlynn Sommers, senior director analyst with Gartner’s Supply Chain Practice.

“This level of adoption, along with promising use cases, such as contract management, means GenAI will rapidly move through the Hype Cycle and reach the Plateau of Productivity at a faster rate than is typical for most emerging technologies in procurement.”

Gartner’s 2024 Hype Cycle for Procurement and Sourcing Solutions evaluated more than 20 technologies impacting the procurement landscape in 2024. This year, many core procurement technologies continued to mature and increase in adoption across organisations.

Additionally, a set of emerging, AI-driven technologies neared the Peak of Inflated Expectations, including GenAI, autonomous sourcing, predictive analytics and conversational AI.

In the last 12 months, GenAI use case availability have expanded greatly, with more capabilities being added by vendors across the sourcing and procurement landscape every month.

Early prominent use cases include contract management, sourcing and supplier management. Additional expected use cases include supporting supplier performance management, P2P and analytics.

Procurement technology vendors are integrating third-party large language models (LLMs) to provide more affordable access to GenAI capabilities in line with digital process support.

These LLMs can adapt to provide recommendations and support based on the organisation’s data and an individual’s procurement role, such as category manager or buyer.

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“The window for building competitive advantage through early adoption of GenAI in procurement is narrowing,” said Sommers.

“Despite this, procurement technology leaders should remain aware of the obstacles to successful implementations, notably in the areas of data quality and integration of GenAI with their current systems.”

Sommers recommended that the best way to solve for these challenges is to launch targeted use-case pilots that will help clarify what capabilities can be scaled, while also monitoring developments from current vendors for opportunities to utilise GenAI without the need to build proprietary infrastructure from scratch.