The vaccine certificate black market has expanded to serve 28 countries, nine of which are new: Austria, Brazil, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Portugal, Singapore, Thailand and UAE.

Demand for fake vaccine certificates has caused prices jumps globally, including the US, where the price doubled from $100 to $200. The number of sellers and subscribers has increased by 10x and 12x, respectively to meet the sky-rocketing demand..

Vendors have innovated on sales techniques by using bots that create certificates on the spot

Prices globally range from US$85-US$200. Following Biden’s vaccine mandate announcement, the price for the CDC vaccine card in the US doubled, from $100 to $200.

On August 10, CPR saw roughly 1,000 vendors on Telegram. Now, there are north of 10,000 vendors claiming to offer fake vaccine certificates, marking a 10x increase.

On Telegram, the vendors who sell fake vaccine certificates organise themselves in groups. The groups each have a subscriber base, indicative of demand.

Prior to Biden’s announcement, CPR observed groups having around 25,000 subscribers. Biden’s announcement resulted in an immediate acceleration in the number of subscribers and followers, with some groups even peaking at a follower size as large as 300,000.

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Check Point Research has also spotted a new technique that sellers are leveraging: bots. For example, in Austria, CPR found a Telegram bot that creates fake certificates for free.

All you have to do is fill in the relevant details and a .pdf file will be shared with them containing all their filled data.

Commenting on this trend, Oded Vanunu, Head of Products Vulnerabilities Research at Check Point Software, says: “We’ve been studying the black market for fraudulent coronavirus services all year. In January, the black market took place mostly on the Darknet, where one needed special software to access it.

“Back then, the market was likely designed for dealers – people who can distribute the fake goods in mass quantities within specific geographies. Over the past nine months, we witnessed a mass consumerisation of the black market by a macro-shift of the black market to Telegram. Telegram appeals to vendors by its anonymity, reach and scale.

“Our expectation is that the black market for fake coronavirus vaccination cards will continue to thrive as more policy requiring vaccination proof gets rolled out.”