Recent research by PwC suggests that there will be thousands of redundancies in the ranks of lorry drivers as ‘robo-lorries’ slash costs and increase efficiencies.

The Global Truck Study found that “within just a few years, the commercial vehicle and logistics industries will merge to form an ecosystem that will be managed digitally and efficiently. Robots are already being used in distribution centres and electric vehicles for last-mile logistics.”

It’s that “within just a few years” that caught my eye. In fact, when you read the rest of the article the prediction is that it will be 2030 before the logistics world is characterised by these changes.

On top of this, I also read that Japanese chip designer Arm is making great strides toward integrating safety features – normally reserved for real-time CPUs – into their highest-end application processor core. The intention of these efforts is that this technology can be used, literally, to steer future self-driving vehicles. That, of course, will accelerate the changes in logistics described above.

Great Strides, Great Challenges

This is all impressive stuff and I’m sure that IT recruitment agencies are helping these firms and industries to find the people they need to make these advances. However, unsurprisingly, the Road Haulage Association is not impressed. As quoted in the Daily Telegraph, its policy director said: “A driver’s job is much more than just driving and, for many jobs away from big distribution centres, there is quite a bit of manual work involved – that’s likely to continue.”

Yes, it is likely to continue. But currently, in my opinion, there are too many industries adopting a posture that is a mixture of King Canute and the proverbial ostrich with its head in the sand. The PwC article concludes: “To remain competitive, original equipment manufacturers need to develop business models with mobility services. In this area, they are in direct competition with leasing companies and above all with the big tech players who are already planning autonomous truck fleets. This ultimately puts them in direct competition with their current customers – a delicate challenge.”

That’s an understatement; it is most definitely a ‘delicate’ challenge, but one that is not going away. Moreover, it’s a challenge that is going to be increasingly replicated in many other industries.  How we respond to that challenge, as both a society and an economy, is going to determine how successful we are in the next decade.

The impact of automation, machine learning and artificial intelligence on the recruitment industry will be massive.  Those unlikely bedfellows, The Guardian and The Sun, have both reported this year on the impact of AI on northern cities. The Sun’s article is the more recent and paints a worrying picture.

“Britain’s struggling ‘rustbelt’ towns across the North and Midlands will be hit hardest by the age of the robots…while the South and big cities like Manchester will boom with the arrival of automation and artificial intelligence, smaller former industrial areas will fall even further behind.”

Unparalleled Change

Without wishing to sound to melodramatic, given the increasing polarisation of our country as a result of the recent referenda and the woeful state of political leadership, the potential for unrest is likely to grow if we don’t take serious steps to understand how AI will impact the world of work – and then act to mitigate its effects.

As far as recruitment is concerned, it’s not just IT that’s going to be affected. In the short-medium term, IT recruiters can certainly make hay as there will likely be a continuing and increasing demand for those with the technological skills necessary to fire this fourth industrial revolution.

However, for our counterparts who recruit for construction, drivers, most areas of manual labour and, indeed, professions such as medicine, law and accountancy, it’s highly likely that demand for their skills in matching candidates to jobs will decline in the next 10-20 years.

I am sure that the industry associations in each of these areas will, just like the Road Haulage Association cited above, come up with reasons why humans should not be supplanted by robots and algorithms, but the aforementioned King Canute should provide them with a salutary warning.

Longer term, it depends on the extent to which AI becomes a controlled friend or an independently-minded foe. The recent series of the Alex cartoon in the Telegraph’s business pages (see August 29^th for example, at this link) pokes fun at what might happen.

There is one thing we can be certain of, though, and that is no matter how much government might try to regulate AI and employment, someone, somewhere will open the Pandora’s Box that allows AI to make unfettered decisions; the consequences of which we may live to regret. And it’s not melodramatic for the IT industry as a whole to insist that government thinks about this now, before it’s too late.