Acorrding to new research by Recorded Future, the Russia/Ukraine war is the main driver behind the the double-digit decrease in payments cards found on the dark web.

The company’s latest report, Annual Payment Fraud Report: 2022, showed a 22% percent decrease in the volume of card-not-present records on dark web carding stores in 2022 at the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, to 45.6 million. The number now lies a further 62% lower, at 13.8 million.

The firm attributed this drastic decline to two main factors; the first being a crackdown by the Russian government on cybercrime groups, including arrests of suspected members of the REvil ransomware group.

“The governing theory is that Russia sought to signal its intent to cooperate with the West against cybercrime should the West acquiesce to Russian demands regarding Ukraine,” the report claimed.

Whatever its intent, the clampdown had a chilling impact on card fraud from the second half of February to April, including the shuttering of several top-tier carding shops, Recorded Future said.

The second factor had an even larger effect, however.

“After April, slack carding demand and depressed volumes of ‘fresh’ records were likely a result of Russia’s war,” the report continued.

“It is highly likely that the war has significantly impacted Russian and Ukrainian threat actors’ ability to engage in card fraud as a result of mobilization, refugee and voluntary migration, energy instability, inconsistent internet connectivity and deteriorated server infrastructure. Russian-occupied areas of the Donbas region of Ukraine were long suspected to have hosted cyber-criminal server infrastructure.”

As a result, the future of the card fraud market will depend on external events, the report concluded.

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“Should Russia’s unprovoked war in Ukraine continue, the factors influencing regional threat actors’ ability to engage in card fraud will likely persist, and threat actors’ ability to engage in card fraud will remain lower than before the war, even as they continue to adapt,” it noted.

“If the war should end, monitoring the region’s post-war economies will be crucial to determine whether the conditions and incentives exist for a renewal – or possibly even an increase – in card fraud activity.”

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