Businesses risk exposing themselves to significant financial and operational challenges by pursuing AI strategies without adequately assessing their potential benefits, according to new research from Gartner.

The research and advisory firm’s latest Quarterly Emerging Risk Report identifies AI strategy miscalculation as the third most concerning emerging risk facing organisations, reflecting growing uncertainty over the strategic implications of AI adoption.

The findings are based on a survey of 308 enterprise risk management (ERM) leaders, auditors and senior executives, with AI strategy miscalculation appearing among the report’s leading risks for the first time.

It ranked behind AI-enabled discovery of cybersecurity vulnerabilities and geopolitical energy supply shocks, which retained the top two positions from the previous quarter.

The findings suggest that concerns surrounding AI are extending beyond cybersecurity, regulatory compliance and governance to encompass broader questions about business strategy, investment decisions and competitive positioning.

“AI risk is moving beyond technology and governance concerns into the core of enterprise strategy,” said Kevin Mercado, Senior Principal Analyst, Research, in the Gartner Risk & Audit Practice.

“The emergence of AI strategy miscalculation and AI-driven competitive displacement reflects growing concern that organizations could either make major decisions based on anticipated benefits that fail to materialize or lose ground to competitors that use AI more effectively.”

The Risks of Moving Too Quickly

According to Gartner, AI strategy miscalculation can arise when organisations invest too aggressively in AI technologies, pursue unsuitable applications or attempt to implement solutions before they have developed the necessary operational, cultural and governance capabilities.

The research highlights how competitive pressure to adopt AI can encourage businesses to accelerate investment and deployment without first establishing whether the technology is appropriate for their requirements.

This creates the potential for organisations to commit significant resources to initiatives that fail to deliver anticipated returns or introduce operational challenges that could have been identified through more thorough planning.

The findings also point to a broader strategic dilemma for businesses. While moving too quickly can expose organisations to unnecessary risks, failing to adopt AI effectively could leave them at a competitive disadvantage.

This tension between the potential benefits of AI adoption and the risks associated with poorly planned implementation is becoming an increasingly prominent consideration for enterprise decision-makers.

“Organizations risk pursuing AI initiatives without sufficiently testing whether the use case aligns with business priorities, risk tolerance, available capabilities and expected returns,” said Mercado.

Aligning AI Investment With Business Objectives

To address these challenges, Gartner recommends that organisations develop strategic AI action plans designed to identify and mitigate risks at different stages of adoption.

The approach involves assessing prospective AI investments against established business priorities, evaluating organisational readiness and implementing appropriate governance arrangements before expanding deployment.

Rather than treating AI adoption primarily as a technology implementation exercise, Gartner suggests that organisations should consider how individual initiatives contribute to wider business objectives and whether they can deliver measurable value.

Enterprise risk management leaders have a role to play in this process, helping organisations incorporate risk considerations into strategic planning while supporting initiatives that offer opportunities for business improvement.

This includes ensuring that businesses have the necessary operational capabilities and governance structures in place before scaling AI applications, particularly where new technologies could affect established processes or decision-making.

Gartner also recommends that organisations look beyond conventional productivity measures when assessing AI performance.

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While efficiency improvements may provide an indication of immediate benefits, the firm argues that businesses should also consider how AI influences the quality and effectiveness of organisational decision-making.

This would allow organisations to evaluate whether their investments are generating meaningful business outcomes rather than simply increasing the volume or speed of existing activities.

The recommendations reflect Gartner’s broader warning that AI adoption must be approached as a series of strategic business decisions, rather than a standalone technological objective.

“Organizations should evaluate AI as a portfolio of business decisions,” said Mercado.

“The organizations most likely to realize sustained value will connect AI investments to clear business outcomes, validate readiness before scaling and establish governance that supports responsible experimentation.”